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Increased political risk across developed economies means investors must now consider domestic issues alongside traditional economic measures when making investment decisions, according to Hermes Fund Managers’ report Political Risk: The impact on investors. The reality for investors today is that politics and economics are so intertwined, neither can be assessed in isolation.
DOWNLOAD PAPER: Political Risk: The impact on investors
Increased conflict within countries and between them – developed and emerging alike – is leading to a rise in political risks for portfolios. Knowing what and where to invest in an era of politically motivated economic intervention, increased threat of sovereign defaults and heightened political tensions is a vital aspect of investments this decade and beyond.
Even five years after the first traces leading to the 2008-2009 global crisis, major economies are still not firing. The good news is the US is expanding again. In his quarterly Economic Outlook, Neil Williams, Chief Economist for Hermes’ Global Government & Inflation Bonds, looks at how with its ‘fiscal cliff’ looming, the dark cloud of the euro-zone likely to linger, the UK stagflating, and even China having to curb a growth slowdown, the portents may not yet be good enough for the ‘risk-on’ trade to endure.
The Bank of England’s (BoE) decision in July to inject another £50bn of quantitative easing (QE) through to November confirms its increasing nervousness about growth, and confidence that CPI inflation will undershoot its 2% target. In his August Ahead of the Curve, Neil Williams, Chief Economist for Hermes’ Global Government & Inflation Bonds, says that even more QE, beyond November, will likely follow.
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